Race is not a determiner in crime and violent crime is not at all-time highs

Even before former President Trump, aided by the media, started making these claims in an attempt to win reelection through fear, these statements were widely believed. That crime is increasing dramatically and that race is a major determination in crime.  

As an example, at the RNC convention, this last week former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani misleadingly contrasted his mayoral record on crime with that of current Mayor Bill de Blasio, citing an uptick in certain crimes as evidence that Democratic mayors are “a danger to their people.” He did this while major crimes are actually down under de Blasio, while there has been an increase in murders this year, the annual number of murders under de Blasio has been about half as high as it was in Giuliani’s best year.  

This recycled George Wallace tactic of using racism to scare white voters is also a tactic we see throughout history in autocratic regimes. When these regimes run out of ideas, they resort to fear. They will create violence through propaganda. If that is not enough in and of itself, they will actually encourage and foment actual division and violence. It is then only they can then protect society and save it from said violence.  

Race is not a determiner of crime  

The primary determiners of crime are poverty, the density of poverty, age, and gender. Using the crime statistics from the FBI, it is easy to see the determinators of crime. Their determinators match many studies over the years. More crime is committed by men than by women, more crime is committed by those at younger ages, more crime is committed by those living in poverty, and more crime is committed in cities where poverty is much denser.  

In 2018, 50.3 percent of all individuals arrested were White, 27.4 percent were Black, 18.8 percent were Hispanic, and 3.6 percent were of other races.  

The American population by race, 61.3 percent are White, 17.8 percent are Hispanic, 12.7 are Black, and 8.2 percent were of other races. 

People living in poverty in America 

·      10.1 percent of all white persons

·      12.0 percent of all Asian persons

·      23.6 percent of all Hispanic persons

·      26.2 percent of all Black persons

·      28.3 percent of Native Americans 

Black families comprised 33.3 percent of families in poverty, white families comprised 31.2 percent, and 28.8 percent were Hispanic.  

What you can clearly see is that most crime is committed by White individuals because they make up the majority of the population. You can also see that black people commit crimes at a higher percentage than they are of the population as a whole. This is a statistic that is commonly used by racists. What they fail to mention is that Black people are also living in poverty both individually and as families at a much higher rate than they are of the population as a whole. Black people also live in dense poverty at a much higher rate than White and Hispanic people.  

In this essay, I am not going to go into detail on the issue of people of color being stopped more often by police leading to an inflated crime rate. I am not going to discuss the fact that white people use drugs at 5 times the rate of people of color but people of color are arrested and incarcerated at much higher rates. The fact that police tend to arrest poor people and people of color for drug crimes at extremely higher rates than they do middle class and wealthy people. 

These topics need to be discussed on their own merits and I cannot do them justice in this essay.  

There is also a lot of data on the specific crimes committed by race. But when reviewed and laid against the combination of poverty, dense poverty, gender, and age the primary factors remain the same.  

Crime is not Dramatically Increasing  

According to a survey conducted by Gallup, about 64 percent of Americans believed that there was more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago. It’s a belief we’ve consistently held for decades now, but as you can see in the chart below, we’ve been, just as consistently, very wrong.  

Crime rates do fluctuate from year to year. In 2020, for example, murder has been up but other crimes are in decline so that the crime rate, overall, is down. And the trend line for violent crime over the last 30 years has been down, not up. The Bureau of Justice Statistics found that the rate of violent crimes per 1,000 Americans age 12 and older plummeted from 80 in 1993 to just 23 in 2018. The country has gotten much, much safer, but, somehow, Americans don’t seem to feel that on a knee-jerk, emotional level.   

So why do Americans still think crime is high? 

The media (now including Facebook and other social media) is primarily responsible for convincing Americans that violent crime is more common than it really is. Media have consistently found that “if it bleeds, it leads”. For years, rarer crimes like murders have been promoted while more common crimes like physical assault have not. This has not changed as the crime rate has fallen. Of course, stories about violent crimes in the media every day seem to make people afraid that the same thing could happen to them.  

There’s clear evidence as well that reporting on crime can prop up harmful stereotypes: Studies have found that media, as well as the entertainment industry, disproportionately portray Black people as perpetrators of crime, and white people as victims.

Even though crime has fallen dramatically over the past few decades, America is still a pretty violent country compared to other developed nations. Violence remains an uniquely American problem taking into account the mass shootings and the proliferation of guns. So, it’s not completely irrational for people to be fearful of violence.  

These fears can be blown out of proportion — not just by wall-to-wall murder coverage in the media, but also by politicians.  

Trump is far from the first president to paint a dark vision of crime in American cities, but he is singularly obsessed with the topic, especially now looking to be reelected while other factors are dismal, the economy, coronavirus, corruption, and his personal popularity. He has seminally moved his campaign into a George Wallace style tough on crime message with “You won’t be safe in Joe Biden’s America.” This “law and order” campaign is riddled with dog whistles and outright racism. Talking about the dangers of crime feed into the racist attitudes of many of his supporters as well.  

Of course, none of this makes us safer. And ironically, over the top fear as well as racism can actually lead to other behaviors that put us at greater risk. You see this with the large number of guns in circulation, new gun purchases again rising, the open carry and flaunting of assault rifles, and the militia movement.